Bayesian spatial analysis of age differences and geographical variations in illicit-drug-related mortality in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Background: Drug use disorders are significant social and public health concerns in the Islamic Republic of Iran; however, little is known about drug-related mortality. Aims: We quantified the spatial and age distribution of direct illicit-drug-related mortality in the Islamic Republic of Iran, to inform harm reduction policies and interventions. Methods: We modelled and mapped registered illicit-drug-related deaths from March 2016 to March 2017. Data were obtained from the Iranian Forensic Medicine Organization. Besag-York-Mollie models were fitted using Bayesian spatial analysis to estimate the relative risk of illicit-drug-related mortality across different provinces and age groups. Results: There were 2203 registered illicit-drug-related deaths during the study period, 1289 (58.5%) occurred in people aged 20-39 years and among men (n = 2013; 91.4%). The overall relative risk (95% credible interval) of illicit-drug-related mortality in the provinces of Hamadan (3.37; 2.88-3.91), Kermanshah (1.90; 1.55-2.28), Tehran (1.80; 1.67-1.94), Lorestan (1.71; 1.37-2.09), Isfahan (1.40; 1.21-1.60), and Razavi Khorasan (1.18; 1.04-1.33) was significantly higher than in the rest of the country. Conclusion: We found evidence of age differences and spatial variations in illicit-drug-related mortality across different provinces in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Our findings highlight the urgent need to revisit existing drug-use treatment and harm reduction policies and ensure that overdose prevention programmes are adequately available for different age groups and settings.

Factors associated with the choice of suicide method in Kermanshah Province, Iran.

BACKGROUND: Identification of factors in the choice of suicide methods is important in understanding the phenomenon. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to quantify the effect of gender, age, living area, education level and marital status on the choice of suicide method among residents of Kermanshah province in the west of Iran. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study of all completed suicides from March 2006 to September 2013. SETTING: Kermanshah Province, Iran. METHODS: Data were extracted from suicide forms in the electronic files of the Forensic Medicine Organization. A total of 1901 (1138 men), suicide cases were identified. After preliminary analysis, a multinomial logistic model was fitted to the data to test and quantify the impact of each influential factor on the choice of suicide method. The relative risk of each suicide method over hanging as the reference method was estimated by calculating relative-risk ratios from the multinomial logistic model. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Relative risk of suicide by self-immolation, drug and toxic poisoning and firearms. RESULTS: We found that women are at a higher relative risk than men for suicide by self-immolation, intentional drug poisoning and toxic poisoning. The relative risk of suicide by self-immolation and intentional drug poisoning was higher for urban residents and young individuals. On the other hand, men and rural residents were at higher relative risk of suicide by firearm. CONCLUSIONS: In Kermanshah province, the impact of rapid social changes on women and the availability of firearms in rural areas and drugs in urban households require more attention in any suicide prevention planning. LIMITATIONS: The lack of data prevented analysis of factors that may be more influential in choosing suicide.